CEASA REVIEW 

For the Special Interest of Marketing & Media Executive

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August 2007

The Australian Marketing Institute presents its 2007 Annual Conference: ‘Marketing’s New Life’

CEASA is pleased to support the Australian Marketing Institute’s 2007 Annual Conference: ‘Marketing’s New Life’. 

This conference brings together leading business thinkers and marketing practitioners to examine the challenges and opportunities that marketers now face.

Much is changing in the world of marketing. The old orthodoxies are being questioned; traditions of 50 years of media practice are being stealthily challenged by new media, media fragmentation and consumers who are hard to reach and harder to convince. There is also much greater emphasis now on accountability and performance measurement.

Marketing’s New Life features 4 International Keynote Speakers as well as inspiring presentations from: NAB, Nestle, McDonald's, Prada, Sony, Acer Computer, Brown-Forman Beverages, News Limited and AFL.

The conference, which also incorporates the Awards for Marketing Excellence, will be held over 3 days at the Hilton Sydney from 17-19 October 2007. For further information on the conference program, visit www.ami.org.au/2007AC or phone: 1300 737 445

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June 2007

MEDIA & MARKETING CATEGORIES

There has been a great deal written about the probable effects of new media on traditional media. Certainly as outlined in the figures below, online has moved strongly from a low base to be the fourth largest medium in 2006 of Print, Television, Radio, Outdoor and Cinema. This has been achieved in just a few years.

On the other hand, the main media mentioned above are also continuing to increase their share but at a slower rate than online. It is difficult to assess just how much online and other new media are affecting traditional media. It would seem that there is the probability that online is enjoying a degree of new money.

CEASA DATA

Variations - Advertising Expenditure in Main Media

 

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

5 Years Median

Newspapers

-2.8%

8.8%

8.8%

5.1%

0.1%

5.1%

Magazines

-0.7%

6.6%

10.7%

9.5%

3.0%

6.6%

Classified Directories

19.9%

8.9%

8.0%

6.8%

-10.4%

8.0%

Other Print

10.2%

-1.8%

4.0%

8.7%

-2.3%

4.0%

Television

6.8%

9.9%

11.7%

3.4%

1.3%

6.8%

Radio

1.1%

4.9%

14.2%

6.6%

3.0%

4.9%

Outdoor & Trans.

-3.7%

13.6%

10.3%

8.1%

7.1%

8.1%

Cinema

-10.1%

13.6%

12.7%

12.7%

2.3%

12.7%

Online

n./a.

41.3%

64.4%

59.8%

61.5%

60.6%

Classified Directories actually went up. The apparent decline .was due to a gap in reporting within Sensis Pty Ltd.

The word we are getting is that the majority of advertisers are still evaluating the likely usefulness of new media such as mobile phones, structured word of mouth etc. etc.

We believe that, at present, advertisers have two sets of opportunities in addressing consumers. These are Marketing and Advertising Media and Marketing Categories. For the record we would place them thus:

Advertising & Marketing Media

Print

Television

Radio

Online

Outdoor

Cinema

Direct Mail

Catalogues

Mail Order

Printed Classified Directories

Promotions in with accounts

Datacasting

Podcasting

Mobile Phones

 
Marketing Categories

Telemarketing

E Mail Marketing

#Database Marketing

Sponsorship of Sport

Sponsorship of the Arts

Ambient Media

Premiums

Point of Sale

Sweepstakes

Sampling

#Loyalty Programmes

Incentive Programmes

Cash refunds

Marketing to hand held devices

Including Mobile Phones

Promotional Products

Door to Door Marketing

Guerilla Marketing

*Viral Marketing

*Cause Marketing

Structured Word of Mouth Marketing

*Ambush Marketing

# Using traditional media and marketing categories
 * Using traditional media

Inevitably there will be mergers.

 

SOME NOTES ON THE ECONOMY

The reserve Bank’s recent statement on monetary policy is of considerable interest against a background of concern as to how long the stock market will keep rising.

In Reserve Bank speak from its May Bulletin "The Australian economy has performed strongly in the recent period, with favourable outcomes being recorded on several fronts. Output growth has picked up and this has been accompanied by continued strength in incomes and falling unemployment. At the same time, despite high levels of capacity utilization and tight labour market conditions, there has been some moderation in underlying inflation."

Paraphrasing other items of interest in the statement:

*There is continued strength in the global economy.

*The global economy can be expected to be above average again.

*The US economy is now in a period of more moderate growth, with activity being dampened by a downturn in the housing sector.

*In other parts of the world conditions have generally remained strong.

*China’s rapid growth has continued.

*The Euro area is now recording its fastest growth for some time.

*The Japanese expansion is proceeding at a good pace.

*Growth in other parts of east Asia have seems to have eased recently.

*In Australia, growth continues to be driven mainly by domestic demand.

*The consumer spending is supported by growth in employment and real wages, rising household wealth and a high level of consumer confidence.

*Wages at the end of 2006 were growing at a rate that was at the top end of the range that was seen over recent years, though they did not appear to be accelerating further.

* Despite the general strength in demand and activity, the evidence from producer and consumer price indices is that inflation has moderated recently.

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May 2007

Brain Scan – The End Of Focus Groups ?

A report in the Sun-Herald May 6 suggested that work has started in America on using a skull cap loaded with sensors or an MRI scan to determine a respondents real reaction to a new product or new commercial.

Pretty frightening stuff.

"People being studied are asked to watch commercials or view new products and, as their brains process the stimuli, researchers analyse changes in brainwave activity. A decrease in alpha waves and a corresponding increase in beta and theta waves indicate the person being studied is paying close attention to the stimuli, suggesting a successful commercial, advertisement or new product.

The MRI produces a cross-section image of the brain of each participant which shows which areas were stimulated at the time they were shown the commercial etc."

It is a trueism that we rarely communicate what we really think about anything. Perhaps the researchers will be in for a shock when respondents’ brains pan everything put up to them in the most strident terms. Or dish up reactions irrelevant to the inquiry.

Surprise, surprise!  Australia is already leading the world in this development. It began with Channel 9 Insights Unit who worked with Latrobe University to develop, firstly, brain scans which would indicate reactions to programming. The person concerned was Mr Peter Pynta who has now moved to Neuro-Insights Pty Ltd, in Melbourne. They are moving to commercialise the system for reactions to commercials, new products and programming. The system can go beyond television to Radio and, no doubt other media. Steve Allen, Managing Director, Fusion Strategy commented that he is sold on the system, regarding it as valuable, fascinating, leading edge work.

Focus Groups ? Steve believes that the new system will not affect their use.

In discussion with Peter Pynta he had this to say. "The benefits and short-comings of focus groups are now well documented. High quality research will always have a market. However, the big challenge is understanding the emotional dimension.

A consumer’s connection with a TVC, a brand or a TV programme is very difficult, if not impossible to accurately verbalise. Maximising marketing and advertising effectiveness is strongly linked to the emotional dimension.

The Neuro-Insight approach, whilst capturing all the usual rational consumer responses, importantly provides us with a direct, unfiltered insight into the emotional response. These insights must then lead to actionable outcomes for a client.

Most of our work to date has been directed at high-value client solutions…which is probably why it attracts the perception of a high price tag. In reality, on some projects, we’ve found our costs can be comparable to running a series of focus groups.

In terms of turn-around times – obviously, the time needed to complete projects varies considerably. It’s not unrealistic to have results, on say an ad test, turn around within a week if critical decisions have to be made.

 

Advertising Expenditure in Main Media

We recently released our annual survey of advertising expenditure in all Print Media; Television; Radio; Online; Outdoor and Cinema. Brief results were:

 

2005-2006 % Change

Newspapers     0.1
Magazines      0.3
Television        1.3
Online 61.45
Radio 3.0
Outdoor 7.1
Cinema 2.3

Individual winners were:

  2005-2006 % change
Online 61.45
Subscription Television 32.68
Regional Non-Dailies 11.75
Outdoor 7.05

The 107 page report is available from us for $3,854.24

Online expectations

According to the latest emitch/Roy Morgan ‘Internet Advertising Intentions and Attitudes survey, major advertisers will invest 22% of their total advertising dollars online 2007 against 16% in 2006.

 

Direct Marketing in Australia

We have released our Direct Marketing survey for the calendar year 2006 showing that estimated expenditure was $12,862,572,897, an increase of 7.8% on the previous year.

It needs to be noted that our overall definition of Direct Marketing is: "The amount devoted to advertising, promotion and other communication costs in order to get a sale or response."

As each of the categories are quite different we include an individual formula for each one.

Employment for those categories included was 715,385

Individual results were:

Category
Expenditure ($)
% Increase/ decrease

Direct Mail

Catalogues

Telemarketing

Promotions in With accounts

The Internet

Mail Order

Television

Metro. Newspapers

Magazines

Classified Directories

1,721,400,000

1,937,800,000

3,419,520,000

448,139,023

3,206,205,220

429, 260,451

90,691,879

47,406,574

49,762,750

1,306,387,000

8.8

3.7

6.3

-5.5*

17.2

2.0

7.1

3.0

2.2

-10.4**

*The drop in Promotions in with accounts was due to substantial changes to the number of companies by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

**The drop in Classified Directories was due to incomplete returns for the period. This category actually went up.

 

Telstra on the move

Chief Executive Sol Trujillo has made it abundantly clear that he intends to move further into media as opportunities present themselves, in particular electronic media.

Telstra is already a main player with the following ownerships:

Sensis Pty Ltd
Foxtel 50%
Big Pond (Movie download service)
Next G (Foxtel streaming to handsets)
SouFun Chinese real estate web site (51% for $US245 million in 2006)

Although growth is assured in these investments, expansion will certainly continue.

Talking Points

Car Sales are continuing strongly March 2007 sales were:

Car Company Number sold  12 months % Change
Toyota 21,390 14.7
Holden 13,454 -0.7
Ford 10,074 -9.4
Mazda  7,140  25.1
Mitsubishi 6,201 22.2
Honda 5,936 28.7
Nissan 5,811 46.4
Hyundai 3,804 -16.5
Subaru 3,613 0.2
Volkswagen 2,265 44.5

Source: Chamber of Automotive Industries

From The Roy Morgan survey of professional ethics and honesty:

Profession Standards of ethics and honesty % % change from last year
Nursing 91 2
Pharmacists 85 1
Doctors 81 2
 School Teachers 78 4
Engineers 71 3
Dentists 69 2
State Supreme Court Judges 68 3
High Court Judges 67 3
University Lecturers  67 3
Police 65 -
Directors of Public Companies 21 3
Business Executives 18 3
Talk Back Radio Announcers 17 -2
Union Leaders 16 -3
Television reporters/journalists  13 -4
Newspaper journalists 12 1
Insurance Brokers 11 -2
Estate Agents 9 -1
Advertising People 9 -1
Car Salesmen 4 1

New Babies:

More than 135,000 babies were born in the six months to September 2006, the biggest increase for such a period since quarterly records began 25 years ago. It helped to push annual population growth to a five year high of 1.32%

Small Business:

The latest small business figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for businesses with an ABN number and staff of fewer than 20 employees at June 2006 was 1,877,898.

Growing Grapes Anyone ?

According to Citigroup Global Markets, based on the current price of $850 a tonne the grape grower gets just 85cents. Turning grapes into wine is worth a mere 50 cents out of a total producer cost of #3.25 including packaging and marketing. The winemaker then takes and extra $1.02 cents as a profit margin whilst the retailer adds $3.40 or 37.5% to the final price.

Wine exports

Australian wine exports set a new value and volume record for the twelve months to the end of April 2007. Volume rose 12% to 797 million litres. Value grew 6% to $2.94 billion, according to the Australian Wine and Brandy Corp.

The US overtook Britain as the most valuable export market. The US took $963 million, Britain $958 million, but Britain took the most volume, 275 million litres with the US taking 230 million litres. The Chinese market went from $28 million to $46 million with volume up 16 million litres. Singapore, the Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium and Norway set new records for value and volume. France and Germany set new volume records.

Champagne

The Champagne Information Centre tells us that we drank 2.94 million bottles of the stuff (including use by formula one winners) in 2006, up 28.6% on 2005. Australia is the world’s tenth biggest champagne market and the second biggest drinkers of champagne per capita, behind the French.

May 1997

Advertising Expenditure in Main Media 1997.

  Total ($'000)  % of Total
Newspapers 2,746,356  36.75
Magazines  452,473  6.06

Free to Air Television*  

2,248,379 30.09

Radio 

539,754  7.22

Outdoor 

253,873  3.40

Cinema 

47,374  0.63

*We had not yet been able to get figures for Subscription Television in 1997

The following extract from our 43 year books shows May entries for 1997:

Free to Air Television: The Federal Government gave CanWest the all clear to keep its 57.7% economic interest in the Ten Network

Subscription Television: Justice McClelland of the Federal Court placed an injunction on the Australis-Optus joint venture because it was in breach of an existing agreement between Foxtel and Australis under which Foxtel held that Australis had no right to sell its satellite assets into a joint venture with Optus.

Newspapers: The Prime Minister, Mr Howard, offered to relax the foreign investment rules to allow Rupert Murdoch to lift his holding in the Seven network in exchange for support from Mr Murdoch for Kerry Packer’s expected takeover of the John Fairfax newspaper group. The deal fell apart, however, when Mr Murdoch’s News Ltd rejected another element of the deal which required News Ltd to sell some of its Australian newspaper titles.

Magazines: ACP dropped two of its computer magazines – PC Week and PC Magazine because of dropping circulation and advertising.

Radio: Entries for REWARDS – recognizing excellence in commercial radio broadcasting – hit an all time record of 730.

Cinema; Village Roadshow opened their 14-screen Crown Casino Complex in Melbourne, continuing the growth in screens across the country. The Fifth Element starring Bruce Willis opened mid May taking $3million in its debut week.

Advertising: Clemenger Sydney bought McCarthy Omon Spencer.

The AANA, anxious to take up self regulation since the demise of the Advertising Standards Council set up the Advertising Standards Board to regulate the standards of taste and decency in national advertising. Advertisers to be persuaded to reconsider offending copy.

The Board to be funded by the AANA but operate on a voluntary basis without sanctions against advertisers who distribute offensive advertising. The Board to consist of 14 high profile people: SBS film critic, Permeranz, Seven network newsreader, Anne Fullwood, former cricketer & NRMA Board member, Geoff Lawson, Chair of the Australian heritage Commission, Wendy McCarthy, Journalists Carmel Travers, Ian Leslie, Catherine Lumby and Trish Goddard. University student Joanne Cohen, author, Sara Henderson, SBS newsreader, Mary Kosdalkedis, and high school student Kate Williams.

Government bodies and Consumer groups heavily criticized the AANA approach to self regulation, pointing out that it had no teeth.

Australian provincial Newspapers recently bought 3M Posters to add to their newspaper, radio and outdoor holdings.

Business: Treasurer Peter Costello brought down his budget. Financial writers took the view that he had run away from continuing the responsible cutting of expenditure an excellent mark for his first budget. It was regarded as overly cautious. It did, however, deliver a return to an underlying surplus in 1998-99

Political: Having refused to support a UN vote condemning China for its Human Rights record, Australia was given accolades by China followed by a visit from Zhu Rongi, China’s Vice Premier and a team of trade representatives.

Government: The Commonwealth Bank/Schiphol bid for the Brisbane airport was successful at more than$1.3 billion.

The NSW Government sold Axiom Funds Management to Deutsche Morgan Grenfell the Australian subsidiary of Deutsche Bank for $240 million.

The Melbourne and Perth airports were sold by the Federal Government.

These extracts from our three volume Advertising Expenditure in Main Media and Australia.

Social: The 141 year persecution of gay men came to an end when a repeal bill went through the Tasmanian Legislative Council.

Mr Justice Wood’s report on the Royal Commission into the NSW Police Force was handed to the NSW Government.

Economic Roundup

Great Budget, politically astute – BUT… it is to be hoped that the consumer recipients of government largess will pay off their credit cards and not go to the shops and cause a blow out in inflation.

BERNARD HOLT

MANAGING DIRECTOR



Copyright Ó Commercial Economic Advisory Service
of Australia 1997-2007